How to Verify a Crypto Signal Provider's Track Record
Anyone can post a screenshot of a winning trade. Verifying a track record means checking that every call was published before the outcome, that the losers are still there, and that the numbers add up.
Why screenshots are worthless
A screenshot shows one trade, chosen after the fact, by the person who benefits from your subscription. It says nothing about the trades that were not screenshotted. Even an honest provider cannot prove anything with screenshots, which is why the only trustworthy format is a complete, timestamped journal that you can scroll through yourself.
Step 1: find the full list
Ask for, or look for, a page listing every signal the provider has published, with the outcome of each. If the answer is "join the VIP group to see results" or a highlight reel on Instagram, stop here. A real journal looks like the ASI public results page: date, market, direction, grade, and the outcome, including every stop-loss hit.
Step 2: check the timestamps
Each entry needs a time the signal was sent and a time it closed. Pick five random entries and compare the entry zone and targets with the actual price chart at those times. The signal must have been sent before the move reached the targets. If the provider posts in a Telegram channel, the message timestamp is your evidence; edited messages show an "edited" label.
Step 3: read the definition of a win
"Win rate" means nothing until you know what counts as a win. Common definitions, from strict to loose:
- Final target reached (strict)
- First target reached, remainder closed at breakeven or better (what ASI uses)
- Any target touched, even if the stop was hit afterwards (loose)
- Trade was "in profit at some point" (meaningless)
ASI counts a trade as a win when price reaches the first take-profit. After that the stop moves to the entry, so the worst outcome from there is a scratch. Trades that reach the first target and then return to entry are shown separately as "breakeven" so you can see exactly how many ran to the final target: 193 of 704 as of 6 October 2026.
Step 4: count the losses
A provider claiming 90% or more over hundreds of trades is either using a loose win definition or hiding losers. Markets do not hand out 90% to anyone for long. ASI's 78.7% comes with 150 losses in plain sight, and the losing streaks are visible in the journal. Treat a record without visible losses as a record without evidence.
Step 5: sample size and survivorship
- Fewer than 100 closed trades is noise. Fifty trades can show 80% by luck.
- Check whether old signals disappear. A journal that only shows "the last 30 days" is easy to curate.
- Look for signals that expired without entry. An honest system shows them as no-trades, not as wins.
Step 6: reward-to-risk
A 78% win rate with targets closer than the stop can still lose money. Look at the distance from entry to stop versus entry to targets. ASI publishes the reward-to-risk on every card and uses a first target roughly equal to the risk, so the published win rate is meaningful on its own. See how to read a crypto signal.
Step 7: can you reproduce it?
The strongest proof is a free sample you can watch live. ASI keeps three current signals free on the homepage with charts, so you can follow them to completion without paying. Watching a few play out tells you more than any testimonial.
The three numbers every journal must show
- Wins and losses, under a stated definition.
- Full-target count, so you know how often the big target is reached.
- Total closed trades, so you can judge the sample.
If a provider cannot give you those three numbers from a list you can scroll, you are being asked to trust, not to verify.
Frequently asked questions
What is a realistic win rate for crypto signals?
With a first-target-reached definition and a risk-to-first-target of about one to one, 65 to 80 percent is excellent and sustainable. Claims above 90 percent over hundreds of trades almost always rely on a loose definition or hidden losses.
What is survivorship bias in signal services?
Showing only the signals that worked. It happens when old losers are deleted, when a provider runs several channels and promotes the lucky one, or when 'results' are a curated highlight list instead of the full journal.
Can a provider fake timestamps?
On their own website, yes, which is why cross-checking against the price chart matters. Telegram message times and third-party archives are harder to fake. ASI signals are also sent to members' Telegram at publication, so hundreds of copies exist with independent timestamps.
Educational market analysis, not financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Figures quoted are from the public ASI Signals journal as of 6 October 2026; a win means the first target was reached.